1. Perspective

Stanford won its 6^th consecutive big game as Christian McCaffrey drove his tractor (re: offensive line) over a field of California golden poppies. It wasn’t the most satisfying Big Game we’ve seen recently, but the offensive line deserves a ton of credit. They’ve helped McCaffrey set a few school records:

• Most all-purpose yards in a game (389 vs Cal)
• Most all-purpose yards in a season (2807… and counting)
• Most consecutive 100 yard rushing games (9… and counting)

We are fortunate fans to have such great players entertaining us. And we also have great coaches. Even though I am again going to point-out a major strategic issue with which Shaw struggles, I still appreciate the quality and consistency of his leadership. Clearly he knows how to get guys ready to play football.

2. Coaching & 4^th Down Decisions

Sonny Dykes made a great call in the first quarter to go for it on 4^th and 1 from its own 42. Goff hit Powell on a quick out and Cal’s offense got going in the right direction. Unfortunately for Cal, it kept getting stuck in the red zone and Dykes opted for field goals.

On AM 1050 after the game, Shaw said something like: That was our strategy on defense—limit big plays and then play clutch in the red zone and trade field goals for touchdowns. It’s just simply math. My first thought was, “Damn… our strategy is to just let them move down the field and score points?”

Shaw elaborated in his media conference the next day: “I hate the phrase ‘bend but don’t break.’ Because it sounds very passive. We’re not a passive football team. But, we want to keep the ball in front of us and not giving up the touchdown passes and trying until late in the game. But trying to keep the ball in front of us and get them to third and six in the red zone. Get them to third and five in the red zone. And not give up the touchdown to make them check the ball down and make them kick field goals. And that’s, once again, that’s — it’s math. If we can go down and score touchdowns and make them kick field goals, eventually, we’re going to win.”

Interesting… Shaw did indeed use the word “math!” Is this a good strategy? Thinking about it more and comparing the result to the big touchdowns in the Oregon game, I think it actually holds some water. However, you are basically admitting that your defense isn’t that good, and you are committing yourself to having to score touchdowns to win the game. Because Cal has a bad defense, it all seems plausible. But in order to win in this kind of offensive shootout, you may have to take some chances with your own offense, including going for it on 4^th down.

In the 2^nd quarter, Stanford faced a 4^th and 1 from Cal’s 49. Shaw went jumbo with Wright and Stanford converted for a first down. Automatic. Easy decision from Shaw. In fact, the data on this will show just how easy these calls are in these situations. Stanford has the highest 4^th down conversion percentage in the country for any team with at least 8 attempts. But then a few plays later, Stanford punted on 4^th and 3 from Cal’s 41! What the hell is that? If you are going to let Cal convert short passes until it reaches the red zone, then what does it matter if they start their possession at their own 20 or 40?

In the stands, I screamed my usual pressure-release mantras: “Buddy Teevens! Walt Harris!” It helped a little. It annoyed some people around me, but others were clearly disturbed by Shaw’s decision and laughed at the single overlapping feature of Shaw’s regime and the Teevens-Harris era: an overly conservative offensive strategy on 3^rd and long, on 4^th and short, and within field goal range.

Shaw, you’re allright man. You aren’t Buddy Teevens. God bless. But let’s get coherent with our strategy here. If we are playing for red zone defense and giving up field goals, then we don’t care much about field position, right? We care about possessions and points.

And, we have the personnel to keep possession and ball into the end zone. Just how good has Remound Wright been in short yardage situations? Or, for that matter, both Wright and McCaffrey? I went back through every game and all the play-by-play data. Prepare yourself to be launched from a hookah into the magi-color swing set of crumbcakes and awe:

I knew something special was happening this year, but I didn’t know the data was going to be this amazing. In three years of blogging and digging through statistics, this find made my hair stand up straighter than any other piece of data. I couldn’t believe it as I went through the games. When running the ball on 3^rd and 4^th down with one or two yards to go, Stanford has converted on all 36 attempts!

In the 3^rd quarter, Stanford faced a 4^th and 1 from its own 43. No brainer, right? Surely someone on our staff must be aware of our percentages?! Shaw punted again. Cal, after scoring on its previous two possessions, took the ball and moved down the field and scored again. At that point, Cal held a huge yardage lead. Cal was moving the ball extremely well, and the game really could have swung in the Bears favor. Fortunately, there were no further possible situations for ignoring an obvious statistical advantage. McCaffrey took over and ran clock, and Cal also ran too much time off of the clock on its drives. At least the Bryce Love sweep for a touchdown in the 4^th quarter was a great call by Shaw.

3. SEC & Rankings

I am shocked how little chatter there is about the abomination that is the SEC East. Last Saturday was absolutely embarrassing for the conference, but because two teams barely escaped with victories, it wasn’t major news. Florida was a 30-point favorite over 2-8 Florida Atlantic and survived by the thread of one play. FAU outgained Florida as well. If FAU would have converted one of their four shots at the end zone in overtime, then Alabama would be playing a team that lost to FAU in the SEC Championship.

South Carolina lost to the Citadel, and Goergia needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern. And this is November… teams should be playing their best football by now. Plus, all of the SEC teams were at home. Can you imagine if Florida had to travel to play at Florida Atlantic? They might have lost by two touchdowns!

Fortunately, the committee pays attention to stuff like this, and moved Florida down in the ranking. Stanford is the highest-ranking two-loss team, and it is above an SEC and a Big12 team that each have one loss. I’m fine with that.

Next week, if Stanford beats Notre Dame, we will look at ranking metrics and see if a Playoff case can be made for Stanford.

4. Up Next: Notre Dame (10-1)

The only thing that scares me about Notre Dame is that they beat USC when USC was playing well. But Notre Dame is banged up and trending in the wrong direction. And they have a ton of pressure on them with the Playoff nearing. Stanford gets a free-roll this week, and Hogan plays in his last home game. Read up on a great Hogan article and then get ready for a blowout. Stanford is going to roll.