1. The Achilles Heal of Stanford Football: Red Zone Play-Calling

Stanford lost a football game to a team from the state of California for the first time since 2009. Unfortunately, the streak didn’t come to an end last Saturday at the Coliseum because Stanford was outplayed. Stanford gave the game away. A couple mistakes certainly didn’t help, but the blame must once again go to poor play-calling.

First, let’s look at the mistakes by the players. The two biggest mistakes were Ty Montgomery’s dropped pass on the first possession and Kevin Hogan’s poor attempt at throwing the ball away which led to USC’s winning field goal. I don’t expect many people to agree, but I think the dropped pass was the bigger mistake. It should have gone for 7 points, and would have set the tone decidedly in Stanford’s favor. Instead, USC played with fire and intensity and the crowd was a major factor early.  With the Hogan interception, he should never have been put in that situation. He had just completed a pass to get to 2^nd and 2, and Stanford should also have wanted to run clock. If you are in 4 down territory, then maybe you take a shot on 2^nd and 2 knowing you have two running plays in your back pocket. But Stanford was not in 4 down territory, and should have run the ball.

While Hogan will take heat for that mistake, Hogan played a decent game. He also made the best call of the night early in the 3^rd quarter. It was 3^rd and 8 from USC’s 18 yard line. Hogan saw the safeties spread wide and checked down for Gaffney up the middle. Stanford picked up each block and Gaffney scored the touchdown to tie the score. 3^rd and 8, and we went up the gut. At that moment, I thought we had the running game and the play-calling in place. We were going to grind our way to victory. When USC fumbled on the next possession, things were looking rosy for Stanford. But then Shaw’s play-calling took another fateful turn towards disaster.

It is important to know that David Shaw only calls the plays in the red zone. Mike Bloomgren calls the rest of the plays. So we have Shaw to blame for failing to run the ball on that next possession after the fumble. On 3^rd and 3 at the USC 12 yard line, a Hogan pass was incomplete. On 4^th down, Ukropina’s field goal was blocked and the score remained 17-17.

Two drives later, with the score tied 17-17, Stanford used a mix of short passes and Gaffney runs (Bloomgren’s play calls) to get to 1^st and goal on the USC 6. On its first play of the drive from the red zone, Shaw, out of nowhere, called for the wildcat formation. The wildcat has worked sometimes with Kelsey Young in motion, but the wildcat always carries an inherent risk: negative yards. It is so obvious what is coming (especially since Young was not actually in motion on this play) that the defense can aggressively pound the line of scrimmage. Gaffney lost four yards, and now Stanford was out of position to run the ball into the end zone. (Note: Stanford is so bad at passing in the red zone, that I still think it should highly consider the run, even on 2^nd or 3^rd and goal from the 10 yard line.) To throw salt on the wound, on third down, Shaw called for a slant to Montgomery. On its own, this is not necessarily a horrible call. But Shaw had already tried this play in the exact same situation, at the end of the first half, and it failed miserably. So, it should come as no surprise to hear USC’s Dion Bailey explain after the game that he knew what play was coming. Because he recognized the play, he completely ignored his receiver and just waited in position to intercept the ball. Failure by Shaw, not Hogan. Hogan actually ran Bailey down and forced him to cut back and get tackled, which was a huge play.

I am fine with Shaw coaching Stanford for many years. But he needs a true offensive coordinator to call plays.  His brain is does not process information properly to play-call a football game. It is not adept at picking up patterns and subtleties and making quick decisions under pressure. He also has made mistakes with numbers and two-point conversion decisions, and has poorly managed the clock and time-outs.

It was a heartbreaking loss. Stanford outrushed USC 210 to 23 and the stout Stanford defense kept USC out of the red zone for the last 39 minutes of the game. Stanford should not have lost that game.

2. Stanford’s BCS Chances

Stanford needs help. It will not be chosen as an at-large team unless a BCS bowl is forced to do so. Basically, Stanford needs no big upsets among the top-4 teams, and it needs the top teams in the PAC-12 and SEC to continue to win and clog the top-14 of the BCS Standings. If the SEC can keep five or six teams in the top-14, then Stanford has a chance. Stanford is hoping for the fewest eligible qualifiers among the ACC, the Big 10, the Big 12, and the non-AQ conferences. (I am going to assume that Oregon wins out, since that is what Oregon does. I am also going to assume Ohio State wins out, since the Big 10 competition is horrible.) Here is the situation with other possible BCS at-large situations and teams:

1. ACC. The ACC is virtually assured to get two teams. Clemson might lose to South Carolina, but they will still be ranked in the top-14. So the only way to limit the number of eligible ACC teams is if Citadel can knock off Clemson this weekend. Go Citadel.
2. Big-10. Assuming Ohio State wins out, there is a chance that they will be the only Big-10 team that will be qualified. There are two games this weekend that would go a long way to that end. Stanford fans should be rooting hard for Wisconsin to lose at Minnesota and Michigan St to lose at Northwestern. Wisconsin losing is the most important game this weekend for Stanford, as it faces no challenge after this weekend and could easily sneak into the top-14.
3. Big 12. Assuming Baylor wins out, there is a chance only one Big-12 school would be qualified. The simplest scenario is if Baylor dominates Oklahoma State this weekend and OSU falls dramatically in the polls. If OSU finishes 10-2, it might not be in the top-14.  But it would be close. It would be better if Kansas St also beat Oklahoma this weekend, and then Stanford fans could root for Oklahoma to knock off Oklahoma State to end the year. That would guarantee the Big-12 only has one eligible team.
4. non-AQ. Stanford needs Fresno State and Northern Illinois to each lose a game. The best chance for Northern Illinois to lose is this Wednesday when they play at Toledo. Toledo is a solid team and certainly has a chance to win. Fresno State has played a ridiculously easy schedule that was made easier by not having to play at Colorado due to flooding in September. The best chance for Fresno State to lose is the Mountain West Championship Game, most likely against Boise State.

For now, we can probably assume that Stanford can afford for the ACC and one other at-large team from the above four groups to be in the top-14 of the Final BCS Standings.  We’ll look at things more closely next week. What your television remotes and cheering lungs need to know for this weekend is that you should root for (in order of importance):

1. Citadel over Clemson!
2. Minnesota over Wisconsin
3. Toledo over Northern Illinois
4. Northwestern over Michigan St
5. Baylor big over Oklahoma St
6. Kansas St over Oklahoma
7. no big upsets in the Pac-12 or SEC (unless it involves Oregon)

3. Up Next: Cal

Well, this game could not have come at a better time. Is Barry Sanders Jr. getting 100 yards in garbage time too much to ask for?