11/7 Stanford 26, Oregon 20

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1. Perspective

That was the first time I can remember the entire lower bowl of the stadium never sitting down at a Stanford football game. And it was loud. And it had the attention of the entire country. And everyone now knows Stanford can play football, against anyone.

And Stanford is 25-1 in its last 26 home games going back to 2009.

And Oregon has “a Stanford problem.”

2. Pounding the Rock

Two statistics tell most of the story in terms of consistency and physicality:

  1. On Stanford’s first series of the game, it went three and out. The next 31 Stanford 1st down series resulted in zero punts.
  2. Stanford had more rushing yards after contact (86) than Oregon had total rushing yards (62).

The physicality of Gaffney and the offense line dominated the game. Stanford finished the game with 274 rushing yards. I heard multiple people after the game remark, “I’ve never seen such dominant running before.” Well, we have seen Stanford dominate with the run game in the past few years. Andrew Luck claims his best game is a 2011 game in which he only threw for 169 yards. But he said it was his and the coaches’ recognition of the mismatches on the ground that was the most satisfying. Stanford rushed for 446 yards against Washington that game and won 65-21. (Luck had 92 of those rushing yards.) In 2009, we saw Stanford rush for 325 yards against USC en route to a 55-21 victory in the famous Harbaugh-Carroll “What’s Your Deal?” game. After that game, Carroll said, “I’m not sure I have the right words to describe being humbled like this. I don’t really know where to put it… We have fallen apart and given our opponents the opportunity to do whatever they want.” So we have seen Stanford dominate and dismantle ranked opponents on the ground in the past few years. But I think there are two distinctions that makes this Oregon game stand out:

  1. Hogan only attempted 13 passes. In Andrew Luck’s final 34 games from midseason 2009 through the end of the 2011 season, he never attempted less than 20 passes. On Thursday, Stanford didn’t need the passing game, even as a disguise.
  2. Stanford ran in the power formation dozens of times. Stanford never used to run like this in previous years. On 3rd and short they would set up in the power formation, but not 20-30 times per game. Again, Stanford didn’t even need to disguise its plan.

3. Ed Reynolds and The Party in the Backfield

I’m just going to let these statistics tell the story here:

  • Including last years game in Eugene, the Stanford defense held Oregon scoreless for 12 consecutive possessions.
  • Oregon hasn’t scored less than 35 points in two years worth of games against teams not named Stanford. In the past two games against Stanford, Oregon’s offense has scored 28 points. Oregon receiver Josh Huff was so frustrated he was crying on the sidelines early in the fourth quarter.
  • Oregon running back Thomas was quoted before the game saying that Oregon “Should at least put up 40.” Thomas was clearly humiliated and showed his immaturity by laughing and jawing with the crowd when Oregon was down 26-7 in the fourth quarter. ESPN announcers Pollack and Palmer quickly noted they wouldn’t ever want to see a teammate acting like that when losing so badly.
  • Coming into the game, Oregon had 31 receptions in which they gained at least 20 yards after the catch. That is an average of almost 4 per game. Against Stanford, the Ducks had zero plays that gained 20 yards after the catch.
  • Stanford has 62 sacks when sending four or fewer pass rushers since the start of 2012. The team with the next highest number of sacks has only 47 (USC).
  • The Stanford defense has forced a turnover in 34 consecutive games.

4. Math of David: Numbers and Coaching

We saw the gameplan on Stanford’s second possession of the game. On 3rd and 2: hand off to Gaffney. Same possession, 3rd and 1: hand off to Gaffney. Same possession, 3rd and 3 from the 5 yard line: hand off to Gaffney. One can only assume Shaw finally read my blog.

Well, he didn’t read my blog. But he definitely realized that Stanford was going to need to eat up clock with long possessions in order to keep the Oregon offense on the field. And so the gameplan was ground and pound, even if it wasn’t explicitly for the reason of it being the best way to put points on the board. The payoff, however, is that Shaw must now clearly see that running the ball, especially on 3rd and 4th down, is our best offense—in any situation against any opponent. I will be flabbergasted if we see Shaw call any more passing plays on 3rd and 2 this year.

5. Up Next: USC

USC has a solid run defense, so it will be interesting to see if the offensive line and Gaffney can have the same success it had against Oregon. Early third and short plays for Stanford will tell the story.

6. Around the Pac-12

UCLA beat Arizona, which is great for Stanford’s strength of schedule. Stanford fans should be rooting for Colorado and Arizona to lose all of its remaining games, even if it means Cal gets a conference win this weekend. We should also be rooting hard for Washington St to upset the Wildcats in Arizona this Saturday. And Stanford definitely would like to see UW, Oregon, ASU, and UCLA win its games against the conference bottom-dwellers, as some of the computer rankings (and the voters) reward “quality” victories over ranked teams.

7. Around the Country

Notre Dame, San Jose St, and Army all lost on Saturday, doing no favors for Stanford’s strength of schedule. All of them blew 2nd half leads. The Notre Dame loss hurts the most, as Notre Dame could have been ranked in a few weeks when they visit the farm. I don’t expect them to get by BYU either, so the season finale is going to lack some luster.

In terms of Stanford’s national title hopes, they are still so bleak that it doesn’t make sense to discuss them—at least until Stanford has played its USC game. Florida State is likely not going to lose, as their remaining schedule is weak. They will end the regular season having beaten only one team (Clemson) that will be currently ranked in the top-20, but they’ve dominated their opponents in such fashion that they will deservedly play in the national championship game. Alabama faces two games that might pose a challenge, though it is difficult to imagine them losing as well. (If Washington State can play Auburn evenly, then Alabama should roll.) Nonetheless, if Stanford can win out, there is the potential to play an undefeated Ohio State team. Wisconsin was 7-5 coming into last year’s Rose Bowl. Ohio State might come in riding a 25-game winning streak. It could be a classic Rose Bowl matchup. But first, USC…

8. Overrated Teams of the Year

#6 (Coaches Poll) Clemson is the only team I haven’t already called out this year in the top-25 that is definitely over-ranked. It has only one win (Georgia) against top 50 teams and a blowout loss to Florida St at home. But, they did beat LSU in a bowl game last year, so maybe they deserve a bit of a free pass for failing to show up against Florida St. So, I’ll let them off the hook, and instead look at how my over-rated teams have fared this year since being called out. (I’m going to use the Sagarin ratings for the current ranking.)

Week 2: #15 Miami Hurricanes (1-0). Currently: #32 (7-2)

Week 3: #13 UCLA Bruins (2-0). Currently: #14 (7-2)

Week 4: #17 Michigan Wolverines (4-0). Currently #54 (6-3)

Week 5: #24 Ole Miss Rebels (3-1). Currently #28 (6-3)

Week 5: #20 Oklahoma St (3-1). Currently #17 (8-1)

Week 8: #23 Texas Tech (7-2). Currently #44 (7-3)

I haven’t changed my opinion of any of these teams. I think each of these teams will lose another game this year as well.

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