1. Pounding the Rock

If you are someone who—with each change of momentum in a football game—finds himself getting up off of the couch to fist pump or flail arms in despair, then you probably got a decent amount of exercise watching the Stanford vs Oregon St game. The offense is such an old, clunky machine and when it briefly sparks to life it is so exciting! I can’t stay seated! When the tired and rusty tractor starts and actually plows a bit of the farm, it is so wonderful and miraculous that we feel all the hope and joy of the change in inertia. And then a few plays later, the farmer grabs a quick lemonade, Dallas Lloyd hops on the seat, drops the clutch, and the plowing stops just a few yards short of the end of the field. Is the machine really so finicky that variety is just too much for it to handle? Come on offense! Can’t we have a little slice with our dice? Or, if we are just an old tractor, then can’t Gaffney just run the darn thing for 60 minutes? And why would we ever pass on 1^st down? Aren’t we better than this? Can’t we just plow one whole field at a steady and sweet pace until it is finished?

…and then I check the stats… Stanford is ranked 79^th this year in total offense. I guess I need to reset my expectations and learn to love the rusty tractor. I guess it still works good enough. At least the harvests have still been coming in well for a few years now.

2. Ed Reynolds and The Party in the Backfield

It was clear from the first series that the defense was going to get to Sean Mannion. On the first possession for the defense, it gained 11 yards. (Oregon St lost 11 yards.) The defense outgained the offense on its first possession by 7 yards! With a penalty added on, Oregon St first drive resulted in a 4^th and 26. Its second drive resulted in a 4^th and 31! The Stanford defense ended the game with 8 sacks, and held Mannion and Brandin Cooks to season lows in passing and receiving yards.

But Alex Carter is still the worst ever at the game of “Three Flies Up.” He is the kid who looks and sees the ball in the air, and then looks at all of the other players to see what they are doing, and then kind of puts his hands on the other players as the ball comes down into the group. The ball could be coming right to him, but he won’t go for the catch. He’ll just hope his proximity to other players makes it harder for them to make the catch. This is worth seeing on film, so scroll to the 2:08:20 mark on Oregon State’s last drive of the game: (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2FKmyriky4). Watch the play and then carefully watch the replay afterwards a couple of times. Watch Alex Carter’s head. He is in great position on defense. Perfect position. The ball is thrown desperately, and it is coming directly towards him. He looks up and sees it. He sees the ball coming right to him. At this point, he should turn into a receiver. His instinct should tell him he is in great position and his instinct should tell him when to jump up for the ball. But instead, after seeing the ball in the air, he stops looking at it entirely! He ignores the incoming ball, as he turns to face the defender and stay close to him. He lightly puts his hands on the defender and is called for pass interference. The announcer notes that this is hardly any contact at all and potentially a bad call, but these calls happen when the defender is not playing the ball.  This is the only ongoing flaw I’ve seen in the defense this year, but it has been a problem that has given up many yards in many games this year.

Considering that Oregon State Trevor Romaine made a 50-yard field goal on his first attempt, I was surprised that Mike Riley was so aggressive on 4^th down. In the second quarter, OSU went for it on 4^th and 3 from the Stanford 18, then 4^th and 1 from the Stanford 34. OSU could have been leading 9-0. In the 3^rd quarter, on 4^th and 5 from the Stanford 35, OSU went for it again, when they were down 10 points. A field goal cuts the lead to a touchdown. Either way you look at it, Stanford’s defense made a huge plays when they were needed. Oregon State was 1-5 on 4^th down. No play was bigger then Ed Reynolds emerging from the mist to blow up the potential game-tying pass and secure the victory.

3. Math of David: Numbers and Coaching 

Examine following series, early in 2^nd quarter: 1^st and 10 at STAN 25: Tyler Gaffney rush for 7 yards; 2^nd and 3 at STAN 32:  Kevin Hogan pass incomplete; 3^rd and 3 at STAN 32: Kevin Hogan pass incomplete. We got exactly what we wanted on 1^st down, and then Shaw forgot to take his anti-schizophrenia medication and we turned into Washington St for two play calls. On the following series, Stanford was driving nicely down the field. On 3^rd and 4 from the OSU 39, Shaw called a pass, and Hogan took a sack, which forced a punt. 3^rd and 4 from opponent’s 39 could not be an easier situation to manage: it is four down territory, and if you are Stanford, you run two times.

Another problem with the play-calling is Shaw’s obsession with the jumbo run package, with everyone bunched up tight. There isn’t any room to run! Give Gaffney some space. He has shown he has the power to drag a tackler for a few yards if he is in space. The jumbo package is not the call for crucial 3^rd and 4^th down runs, and it almost cost Stanford the game after it didn’t pick up the 3^rd and 1 late in the 4^th.

Shaw deserves credit for a couple aspects of the game, however. At the end of first half, Stanford got the ball back with 46 seconds at its own 34 down 3-0. Classic Shaw conservatism says run out the clock, but Shaw let Hogan air it out. And as has been the case this year, when throwing downfield to Montgomery, good things usually happen. Montgomery made a great catch, and a Hogan scramble two plays later put us in position to score. We had 1^st and goal at the 4, 13 seconds remaining, one timeout. Against Utah, Shaw worried about the clock and didn’t run the ball into the end zone. This time, with one timeout, Shaw recognized it made sense to try at least one run play, and Gaffney was able to pull off another beastly run. This drive was the turning point for Stanford. And on the 2^nd half kickoff, Stanford got its first fumble recovery since the Army game, and two Gaffney runs later we were in control of the game.

4. Up Next: Oregon

This game is a free-roll. Nothing bad can happen. If we get beat, we can still win out for the Rose Bowl bid, play an Ohio State team riding a 24-game winning streak, and watch Oregon try to dethrone the SEC in January. If Oregon makes mistakes and Stanford controls the line of scrimmage, then Stanford gets to enjoy a heap of scenarios for sneaking into the national title game. But we aren’t even going to talk about that latter possibility. Stanford will lose this game unless its offense is balanced and sustains long touchdown—not field goal—drives. Stanford must own third and fourth down on both sides of the ball. I don’t think turnovers will be the key. It will be time of possession and finishing with touchdowns. Even in a close battle, I still worry about Oregon’s splendid cache of fake punts, onside kicks, and two-point conversions. Oregon has 20 consecutive wins (excluding the Stanford loss last year) by 17 points or more. Oregon has figured out how to be Oregon, and it doesn’t leave me feeling optimistic. Still, I can’t wait for the atmosphere at Stanford Stadium. I can’t wait for the roast duck at our tailgate barbecue. I can’t wait to see Mariota in person. And I can’t wait to see our guys get after him.

5. Around the Pac-12

It looks like Arizona State is stepping up as the team to beat in the South division. The Wisconsin win is looking more impressive, and its two losses were to Stanford and turnovers. (ASU had 5 turnovers in its loss to Notre Dame.) USC and UCLA also seemed primed to fight for that south title.

Teams not named Oregon and Stanford have dropped in the rankings, but I still think the league is strong and will fare well in the bowl season. Using Washington St. and Utah as measuring sticks helps show the depth of the league. The two teams are a combined 3-8 in Pac-12 conference play. Earlier in the year, Washington State played Auburn basically even on the road, and Auburn is 8-1 and ranked in the top-10. Utah beat a good Utah St team and won at BYU.  BYU is now 6-2 and owns solid wins over Texas, Georgia Tech, Houston, and Boise St.

6. Overrated Team of the Week

#23 Texas Tech (7-2). Texas Tech has only one victory against a team that has a winning record: Texas State (6-3). Meanwhile, BYU (6-2), which sits just below in the paragraph, owns six victories over teams with winning records. Yes, all six of BYU’s wins have come against teams with winning records, including 7-1 Houston and 6-2 Texas! Texas Tech should go quietly back to shadow that is Kliff Kingsbury’s beard, and BYU should join the SEC so with two losses and some good wins they would never be voted lower than 15^th.