1. Perspective

Stanford was skating on thin ice for a while now. Its 13 game winning streak included a 6-0 record in games decided by 7 points for less. That isn’t the kind of thick pond ice that the Ducks are cruising on. After getting outplayed by Washington last week, I’m not surprised that Stanford couldn’t pull out another thriller. Maturity, talent, and experience can take you so far, but at some point, mathematics is going to kick in and the ball isn’t going to bounce your way.

The good news is that Stanford fought hard and gave itself a great chance to win. The “what if” scenario from Stanford’s perspective is this: Utah doesn’t convert the hail mary-like 51 yard touchdown pass on 3^rd and 17, Williamson makes the 38 yard field goal in the first quarter, and Stanford runs out the clock on the last drive to win smoothly by four. This isn’t such outlandish thinking. But from the Utah perspective, take away Montgomery’s kick return and Wilson’s tipped interception deep in the red zone and Utah wins the game by 20. So clearly Stanford didn’t deserve to win, even though it could have, if Shaw was a smarter play-caller.

2. Pounding the Rock

The offense gave about what you might expect: 389 yards, no careless turnovers, a great performance by Montgomery (who is now third in the nation in all-purpose yards.) The Kevin Hogan of the Washington St game seems to have vanished as quickly as he appeared, but I think that might have more to do with play-calling than anything else. Stanford’s third drive that stalled and resulted in a missed field goal really opened the door for Utah, as Stanford was driving for an early two touchdown lead, which would have changed the dynamic of the entire game. On Stanford’s next drive, Shaw somehow called a passing play on 3^rd and 1, and that was the end of Stanford’s offense until the 4^th quarter. But Hogan and Montgomery really stepped it up in the 4^th quarter, with a series of beautiful 3^rd down completions that almost proved to be enough for the win.

3. Ed Reynolds and The Party in the Backfield

Teams are clearly trying to take away Stanford’s defensive strength by using runs and screens that get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands quickly. Wilson rarely sat back in the pocket at risk of Stanford’s pass rush.  Stanford took a bit too long to slow this attack down, although the defense played great in the second half, allowing only two field goals, both of which resulted from Stanford fumbles. It made another timely interception to continue its streak of 30 consecutive games with a forced turnover. It came up big in the 4^th quarter. Unfortunately, the damage was already done in the first half.

The big blow was the previously mentioned 51-yard pass from Wilson to Anderson at the end of the first quarter. Stanford cornerbacks are still getting burned by not finding the ball on sideline throws. This week it was Carrington who failed to turn around and find the ball. Because it was a 3^rd and 17, the touchdown play was pivotal for Utah.

Has anyone seen Ed Reynolds partying lately? He isn’t playing badly, but he is making my title choice for the defensive analysis section of this blog look dubious at best.

4. Math of David: Numbers and Coaching

What Jim Harbaugh built at Stanford was power football. We hand the ball off and can get two yards anytime, even if it is a two-point conversion in a blowout at USC. It doesn’t matter what is happening in the game. If we need two yards, we let our power take over. Heck, if we need four yards on third down, just pitch it to Gerhardt. It is disappointing to see that Shaw has not kept the play-calling in line with this mentality. As I’ve said all year, Shaw calls way too many passing plays in key 3^rd and 4^th down situations. Here are the statistics for the year on 3^rd and 4^th down in short yardage situations (First Downs / Attempts):

1 yard to go:   Running (15/18)  Passing (0/3)

2 yards to go:  Running (1/3)     Passing (1/3)

3 yards to go:  Running (2/2)     Passing (2/7)

4 yards to go:  Running (3/3)     Passing (3/7)

The data overwhelmingly favors the run, and some context lends even more perspective favoring the run. In the 5 run plays that Stanford was stopped, 3 were with backup linemen and running backs, and 1 was the Hogan bootleg late in the 4^th quarter against Washington.  So, the starting unit has had tremendous success on the ground, especially with Gaffney running the ball. Gaffney has picked up the first down in 16 of 17 tries in these running situations. The only time he was stopped was on a third and one against WSU—he fortunately got the rock the next play and promptly picked up the first down. What a luxury to have Gaffney at your behest when you have two downs to get two yards at the end of the game.

Of course, you can’t run every time. You have to pass sometimes to keep the defense honest. But with these statistics above you would have to be insane, or horribly inept, to call anything but running plays in short yardage situations with your season on the line. The last drive was full of thrilling pass plays, but when we got to 3^rd down and 2 at the six yard line with 1:35 left and two timeouts remaining, the game was over. We were going to pound the ball and score. Even if it took a few run plays, that wouldn’t be a problem. We needed to eat up the clock since Utah only needed a field goal and had all three timeouts. I’m thinking: I can’t wait to see Gaffney get the ball. I was a little disappointed to see the power formation come out, which allows to defense to stack the box, but no problem. Even if we only get a yard we’ll give him the rock again on 4^th down. And then…. travesty! Utter travesty. On the most important play of the season, Shaw calls a play for two guys who haven’t been involved in the offense all season. Hewitt is covered on the sweep, so Hogan throws to the 2^nd option on the play, Charlie Hopkins. Charlie Hopkins? What? Who? Charlie Hopkins is indeed a Stanford player—he made a crucial catch for 4 yards against San Jose State. That is his career stat line. And here is the problem: he doesn’t have the experience to execute properly. Watch the 3^rd down play at the 2:27 mark of the video. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-e61_FZWOo ) Hopkins is wide open in the end zone, but instead of stopping in space and turning to the ball, he continues towards the defender. Hogan tries to put the ball where he should have been, just away from the defender, but Hopkins has gone too far. The route may have called for him to head towards the corner, but in the end zone, you find space. Great players find space. And Hogan was even sharp enough to recognize the space that Hopkins had. He threw a good ball. But Shaw put an inexperienced player in a huge situation. That was a huge mistake.

On 4^th down, I knew we were doomed when Hogan lined up in the shotgun. We aren’t a shotgun team. We are a play-action team that is built on the power run. And Shaw, somehow, inexplicably, doesn’t get it.

5. Up Next: UCLA

The good news is that Stanford owned UCLA twice last year. And both teams are very similar to last year’s teams, though Hundley has perhaps shown more improvement than Hogan. Still, Stanford will be fired up after the loss, and we will not see anything surprising from UCLA. It is pretty clear what has to happen to win: slow down the opponent’s offense. Until we see a repeat of the offensive performance we put on against Washington State, it seems like our defense is going to have to nail down the victories for us.

6. Around the Pac-12

Cal’s season is over. They will finish this season 1-11 and stretch its streak to16 consecutive losses versus FBS opponents. Well, OK, they might beat Colorado. But it doesn’t look good. I think I gave Cal’s early opponents of Northwestern and Portland St. too much credit; both teams were winning games at the start of the year. But Northwestern has been exposed as a pretender and Portland St has lost three straight to Cal Poly, Montana, and Southern Utah. With Goff, Harper, Treggs, and Bigelow all returning next year, however, they won’t stay down for long. Or will they? Just how bad is the culture in the locker room right now?

This should be Oregon’s year. They look unstoppable. The Heisman race, barring injury, is over. Mariotta has accounted for 25 touchdowns and zero turnovers. And he actually seems like a nice and reasonably humble guy, which is a pleasant change from Manziel. I can’t wait for November 7^th, but really I can’t wait for January 6^th, when Oregon will claim the national championship for the Pac-12. It certainly looks like no one will challenge Oregon, which makes all of Stanford’s non-Oregon games that much bigger. Stanford will still get to the Rose Bowl with two losses, but only if that second loss is to Oregon.

The teams that Stanford misses this year, Colorado and Arizona, are both 0-2 in the Pac-12 so far. This bodes well for Stanford’s strength of schedule, as both seem headed for losing seasons. With UCLA (5-0), Oregon St (5-1), and Oregon (6-0) coming up, Stanford should soon have one of the best schedule resumes in the country.

7. Overrated team of the Week

#19 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-1). Virginia Tech is overrated virtually every year. They have never had a sound football team and have relied on great special teams and weak schedules to somehow manage a thin veil of respect. Stanford exposed them with a blowout win in the Orange Bowl four years ago, and that was actually one of the decent Virginia Tech teams. But the Hokies haven’t beaten a ranked opponent since that season, going on three years now. (Actually, two years ago they beat Georgia Tech who was #21 at the time, but Georgia Tech went on to be unranked with five losses that year.) So, they have had no success against anything that smells faintly of quality. This year, they needed three overtimes to beat Marshall, and squeeked by East Carolina by five. Get them out of the top-25.