1. Perspective

Late, short, and sweet with the blog this week. This week was busier than Christian McCaffrey’s feet. Apologies to those loyal readers who might have needed just one more diversion in the middle of their work week. How many readers are there, you ask? Usually on any given week about 50 people, but when the link gets posted to other Cardinal sports sites or forums that number spikes up to around 1,000. I’ll lay a large bet that this week’s write-up is posted nowhere as it is more likely to make you feel like you took a wrong turn down a dead-end street in an abandoned development somewhere near the Salton Sea. Smells like dead fish? You’re welcome.

Speaking of numbers, Stanford now has a 75% win percentage, and they play 75% of their remaining games at home. That all sounds pretty good. People are starting to compare us to Ohio State last year, which seems a bit too optimistic. Way too early. Although who knows, is Chryst the baller that is Cardale Jones? Maybe. There are some similarities with the run game coming around. Nobody could stop Elliot, and McCaffrey is trying to develop that kind of dominance. He can’t run over people, but he is super shifty, always decisive, and has a very underrated stiff arm to shake people off. Last week I called for him to lead the nation in all-purpose yards. He rose to the challenge: 303 all-purpose yards against Oregon State. He’s going to need more punt and kick return yards though if he is going to take the title.

There were a lot of potential turning points in this game. Some turnovers that swayed momemtum, missed catches (Rector), amazing catches that shouldn’t have happened (Rector). Ultimately, the big plays and breaks evened out, and the better team won. On the road after a battle against USC, it was a very nice win for Stanford.

2. Up Next: Arizona (3-1)

Blake Martinez had 9 tackles against OSU, as well as some solid rushes on the passer on 3rd down. He was initially snubbed by Mike Stoops in his prep days in Tuscon, and ended up committing to Stanford. Look for a big game by Martinez.

The defense will be key in this game. I’m not saying they have to play perfect for us to win. I’m just saying it will be interesting to watch. Oregon State used some tempo and some read option, and at times we looked slow when trying to stop the run game. Arizona will be trying to run in all directions, from all positions, especially quarterback. Expect us to do what we did in the second half of the last couple of games: more pressure up front and more run game support. I’ll take our chances in the secondary if we can shut down the run game.

On the other side of the ball, Arizona is only 65^th in the nation in run defense, and they will be missing at least one key player. I would expect to see more of the ground and pound, punctuated by the occasional shot downfield.

My favorite play that we have, however, is with McCaffrey in the slot with a lot of other receivers. It puts him in single coverage, and he can juke left or right. This play hit for 38 yards last Saturday. They’ve never used this more than once per game… Shaw seems very focused on using these plays as surprising outliers rather than regulars. But I wouldn’t mind seeing that play-call bumped up from 1 to 2 per game.

3. Next Week:

Expect a long, discursively cogent, bravely humble, and blindingly astute blog post replete with lots of stats analysis and a full top-25 breakdown.

1. Perspective

When ABC opened its broadcast at 5pm on Saturday, it quickly focused on Cody Kessler. Then, the announcers discussed Kevin Hogan, noting how he often hurts himself with bad mechanics and footwork.

Hogan seems to be always on the verge of being, at best, ignored, and at worst, criticized. To be fair, Kessler has better numbers than Hogan. Since the start of last year, Kessler has 49 TD passes and 5 interceptions. But before ABC cut to commercial break, they slipped in this fact: only Andrew Luck has won more games than Kevin Hogan as quarterback for Stanford. And this fact is only temporary—when Hogan finishes the year, he will be Stanford’s winningest quarterback of all-time.

Stanford’s 41-31 point win on Saturday was full of dramatic catches and 3^rd down converstions. It was perhaps Hogan’s finest moment.

2. Offense: I’ll Have a Hogan’s Hero on Dark Rye

It wasn’t Hogan’s best game—that would be the basically flawless performance at UCLA where every ball and decision was perfect. It wasn’t the biggest win—that would have to be the Rose Bowl victory or the win at Oregon his freshman season. But this was his finest hour in the heat of battle. In all of Hogan’s victories over the past four seasons, he has always had tremendous help or the comfort of a lead. Either the defense was stout and held opponents to few points, or he was supported by special teams touchdowns and a powerful running game. Not a single one of Hogan’s 26 prior victories as Stanford’s starting quarterback was won in an offensive shootout. In fact, Stanford had not won a game with Hogan under center while giving up more than 30 points. And in the few games where Stanford needed 30 to win, special teams, turnovers, and the run game always helped Stanford put points on the board.

Against USC, Stanford had no big plays from its special teams (other than some beautiful field goals from Ukropina). It forced no turnovers. And its defense was full of holes. Yet Hogan led the offense to a thrilling victory, while playing almost half of the game with a significant injury (which I’ll discuss later). Hogan was clutch, and Stanford picked up 8 or 12 third down attempts. Hogan still had plenty of help, however. After dropping passes in previous games, Stanford receivers made some beautiful catches. Besides Cajuste dropping a touchdown pass and McCaffrey letting a floater slip off his fingertips, the receivers played as well as receivers can possibly play.

Irwin had some huge third down catches. Love gave some shake and bake in the flat. Hooper was absolutely unstoppable. Owusu caught a deep ball with a defender all over him. Shultz caught some delicate balls in traffic. Wright slid open over the middle.

Once the big passing plays got us the lead, the big boys up front took over. It was very satisfying to see the offense wind down the game clock and squeeze USC out of possessions. (Stanford held the ball for twice as long as USC.) The run game has room to mature, and maybe this 2^nd half performance was a turning point that catalyzes them to reach their potential.

Furthermore, Christian McCaffrey is 4^th in the nation in all-purpose yards per game! I didn’t realize how rare it is nowadays to have someone play these four roles: running back, receiver, punt returner, and kick returner. McCaffrey is the only player in the country to have at least 24 rush yards, receiving yards, punt return yards, and kickoff return yards. (As a math teacher, I should disclose that this is a cherry picked statistic—if we set the bar at 20+ yards, there would be a second dude.) So he’s fourth in the nation, but he hasn’t even gone off yet! He has not had a single big yardage play all season:

Play                                    Longest Gain This Season

Rush                                    27

Reception                        25

Punt Return                        16

Kickoff Return            28

You heard it here first: McCaffrey will lead the country this year in all-purpose yards per game.

3. Defense: Success is Relative

The defense kept USC’s offense to 26 points under its season average. So hey, the defense played OK, right? It was scary to watch USC run the ball so easily on that first drive. But the defense did just enough to win. And honestly, the offense really owed the defense a game like this. The Stanford defense has carried the team for the past few years, and it is pretty tough to stop guys named Juju. Is there reason to worry about Cal and Oregon putting up 50? Maybe. But I think USC has a really strong offense—probably as good of an offense as either Cal or Oregon. So I’m hoping the defense can hold them to… I don’t know… 31 points or so?

4. Coaching: David Shaw’s Finest Game?

I thought this was one of Shaw’s best games. I first took notice in the 2^nd quarter when we saw a new play: McCaffrey took a handoff and faked a pitch like he was running the option. But the real turning point for me was the way Shaw handled the end of the first half. Instead of conservatively hoping to run out the clock, Shaw used a timeout before USC faced 3^rd and 15 with 1:40 remaining. It surprised me a bit. On the one hand, USC needed 15 yards, but I wasn’t confident we could stop them. Plus, even if we did, they were near midfield—we were likely to get the ball back with bad field position. Fortunately, the defense sacked Kessler, and Shaw used another timeout. Still, when we fair caught the punt, we were 78 yards from the endzone with 1:26 on the clock and one timeout. USC still had three timeouts. I was more worried about a three-and-out and USC getting another shot to score. But Shaw was on the offensive. (Yes, he did call two runs up the middle on this drive, but that is just Stanford football.) Shaw had the correct mindset—not because it worked, but because we were in an offensive shootout. On 2^nd down, Hogan made a brilliant and elusive move to avoid a sack and find Hooper for a big gain. Eventually, Stanford had 8 second left, with one timeout, from USC’s 17. Shaw made a great call: get Hogan on the move. If necessary, he can throw the ball away. But Cajuste broke free, Hogan threw a perfect pass as he normally does when he rolls right, and Stanford was in it to win it.

Once Stanford had the lead, Shaw went to the run game. I didn’t think it would work. It worked. From the 3^rd quarter until the final snap, Stanford ran the ball on 16 consecutive 1^st and 2^nd down plays. Astonishing. There was little to no deception—except on 3^rd down, when the calls were brilliant. My favorite play of the year thus far came on 3^rd and 7 from the Stanford 46 while leading 38-31 with 4:47 remaining. Hogan used Love coming across for a screen as a decoy, then turned the other way to toss it to McCaffrey for a big gain. Misdirection. Deceit. Sugar and spice and everything nice. That play put the nail in place, and Ukropina dropped the hammer.

5. A Surprising Statistic

So far this year, Stanford is averaging 5.9 yards/play, 44^th in the country. Oregon averages 5.8 yards/play. Crazy, especially considering the 3.9 yards/play performance against Northwestern and the conservative 2^nd half run plays against USC. Yardage stats will never look great for Stanford since it is a ball control style of offense. But yards per play is a good statistic to gauge Stanford’s success, and it is finally starting to show signs of success.

6. Up Next: Oregon State (2-1)

Oregon State has wins over San Jose State and Weber State. It got crushed by Michigan 35-7. Stanford is a big favorite, though there are uncertainties. Hogan’s ankle sprain against USC was significant, and he will stay out of practice all week. He will be a game time decision. There are a couple ways to play it here. Shaw could start Chryst and see how he does. If Stanford can control the game, Hogan can heal his ankle. Or, Shaw could give Hogan the start so he can continue his streak of consecutive starts, hope to get the lead early, then pull him for the rest of the game. It is a tough call. Hogan obviously is a tough kid. He wants to play so badly that I would guess that Shaw will let him test out the ankle at the beginning of the game. Ideally, though, Hogan needs to fully heal. We need his mobility in the running game in the coming weeks.

We are still looking for a big special teams play or defensive touchdown. Keep your eyes peeled and quartered.

7. The Pac-12

It baffles me to see the Pac-12 South taking more of the spotlight. I still think Oregon and Stanford are the two best teams in the conference. Furthermore, it is insane that California is ranked ahead of Stanford in conference power rankings (ESPN). It is all just hype at this point. Cal is 0-8 against Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, and USC in the past two seasons. I love that Cal is getting good, but shouldn’t they have to actually beat somebody to leapfrog Stanford in the rankings?

8. Rankings: Print Out the Polls And Use To Wipe Down Your Toilet Bowls

Speaking of rankings… USC is still ranked ahead of Stanford in both polls. What a travesty. There is zero justification for this; it just shows absolute incompetency on the part of voters. If USC owned a big win against a ranked team this year, it would be conceivable. If Northwestern was a horrible team, it might make sense. If Stanford had gotten lucky and benefitted from a +4 turnover margin to beat USC by a point, I could accept the ranking order. But not based on results so far. Northwestern deserves to be ahead of Stanford, and Stanford deserves to be ahead of USC.

9. UCF, Northwestern, and Notre Dame

I think Northwestern (3-0) is good but not great. They beat a good Duke team on the road, and it looks like they have a great defense, but not much else. Hopefully they can continue to win games. It is a bummer that UCF (0-3) is flaming out. UCF was a great schedule by the AD and should have helped our strength of schedule, but it lost again, this time to Furman! Just bad luck for Stanford. Fortunately, Notre Dame (3-0) is off to a good start. Keep rooting for the Irish to win until it visits Palo Alto in November.

1. Perspective

Stanford picked up right where it left off against Northwestern: execution problems (drops, bad passes) and penalties. The penalties really hindered Stanford’s ability to put points on the board early—costing us first downs and a big punt return. As the first half went on, Stanford fans were feeling very discouraged. In almost 90 minutes of football this season, we had scored no touchdowns. I found myself daydreaming about other things… champagne with my wife, a bubble bath, a platter of assorted dessert tarts. Shaw was coloring between the lines in similar shades of dullness. But just when I was about to leave at halftime for Whole Foods to buy eucalyptus ginger bath salts, the Stanford defense recovered its first fumble of the season. Soon after, with one flick of the flea, the offense flamed to life. It was for the best, I suppose. Technically speaking, I don’t have a wife or a bathtub.

2. Coaching & Play-calling

I was extremely critical of Shaw’s play-calling against Northwestern. Not surprisingly, I felt mostly pleased with Shaw’s play-calling as I was walking out of Stanford Stadium late Saturday night. It felt like there was more diversity to the offense, but was there really? Was Shaw correct that the problems against Northwestern were all about execution? Perhaps I was just biased by the results? I decided to watch both games again so I could quantitatively compare play-calling. For both games, I noted any plays that were different than your generic run or pass plays. Here’s the breakdown of plays I deemed more dynamic than your standard plays.

The data is clear. The play-calling was definitely more geared towards dynamic plays against UCF. Shaw had a good game against UCF! When McCaffrey runs and basic passes weren’t working, Shaw mixed it up. I just wish Shaw would admit that he—as well as the players—had a bad game against Northwestern. I don’t mind a coach who has a bad game occasionally. I just can’t stand the insecurity disguised as denial and the lack of self-awareness.

As long as Shaw continues to mix up the play-calling, I really only have one outstanding issue with his game management: 4^th down strategy. Clearly, I am not alone. There was a chorus of boos echoing throughout the stadium when Shaw punted from UCF’s 33 yard-line in the 1^st quarter. Exposing his own lack of coherent strategy for these situations, Shaw let Ukropina try a kick from two yards further away later in the 2^nd quarter. Ukropina made the 52-yard field goal with plenty of room to spare. If it is 4^th and short from past midfield, we should go for it. If it is 4^th and long and we are in inside the 40, we should try a field goal. Punting has been mathematically proven to be a poor strategy, and Shaw is still in the dark on this one. Though he shows signs of seeing the light occasionally. He did go for it on 4^th and 1 from the 44 in the 2^nd quarter. He also went for it on 4^th and 3 from the UCF 4 yard-line in the 4^th quarter. Both were good calls. In the 4^th, Stanford was up 17-0—a field goal still keeps it a three score game. I doubt that Shaw was thinking numerically, but either way, I’m happy to see any signs of aggressive offensive strategy.

3. Offense

Bryce Love has arrived! Last week I wrote that I wasn’t sure what was going to be new this year. I now have an answer to that question. Bryce Love has both ankle-breaking moves and track star speed.

I was wrong about Francis Owusu. I thought he was going to have a breakout year. Instead, he has looked slow and he dropped a pass against Northwestern. Shaw seems to realize this and is developing other options like Love and Irwin.

I didn’t realize this until after the game when I saw the box score: McCaffrey was really shut down in the rushing game. He had 20 carries for 58 yards. Not a great sign for him and the offensive line. McCaffrey seems like he is going to be more effective catching passes out of the slot. He has great hands just like his father. I’d like to see him line up there more and have Remound Wright take some of the carries in the backfield.

We finally got to see Keller Chryst, who completed a 20 yard pass in the 4^th quarter and now owns a 268 passer rating. I’d like to see him more—sooner rather than later.

4. Defense

I don’t remember watching an entire game when I never once registered a name, number, or skill of a single player on the opposing team. I didn’t even notice that UCF had played three different quarterbacks. The defense was so dominant that there was almost no point trying to discern what UCF was trying to do on offense. Nothing worked.

Shout out goes true freshman Quenton Meeks (#24) who made one of the best defensive plays in recent memory. UCF went for a 4^th and 9 conversion in the 1^st quarter, and Meeks stepped in front of the tight end to break up the pass. Stanford defensive backs have always been solid, but rarely do we see them step in front of a receiver. Meeks and the rest of the secondary are playing well so far this year.

5. Officiating

UCF had two penalties for 19 yards. Stanford was penalized 12 times for 137 yards. I’ve never seen such a lopsided game. Most of the penalties were self-inflicted, but a 12 men in the huddle penalty was phantom, and the officials erroneously waived off a UCF holding flag on an Irwin deep route. The fact that Stanford still dominated despite the penalty discrepancy shows how much more talented it was.

6. Up Next: USC (2-0)

Every USC game for the past 5 years has been epic. I’m hoping for more of the same. If the Stanford secondary can limit big plays, it should be a close game. USC has two blowouts, but Idaho is horrible and Arkansas State gained over 400 yards—4 turnovers helped turn that game one-sided. So we really don’t know too much about USC yet. And we still don’t know what Stanford can do. We’ll know a lot more after this Saturday’s game.

1. Perspective

The first drive started out with the fresh aromas of a new fall breeze. Things were moving, and McCaffrey and others even displayed new numbers on their jerseys. The leaves were seemingly turning cardinal colors. And then—the red zone. Settling for a field goal after the ease of the first drive was ominous, and all too familiar.

Afterwards, things just got worse, and Stanford lost its opening game for the first time since 2007.

We saw this same game before. Last year against Utah. Last year against Arizona State. Last year against Notre Dame. We’ve seen the combination of ridiculously bad execution from the players and poor decisions from the coaches.

I’m not sure how I’m going to find the energy for the blog this year. It isn’t entirely bandwagon related—my teaching schedule has increased and it is going to be tough for me to find the time. But I’m also just wondering what there will be to write about. What will be new and interesting this year? I honestly don’t know at this point.

2. Coaching: Stubborn Is As Stubborn Does

David Shaw is still too—I don’t know…what is a word that means the exact opposite of dynamic?—to be in charge of offensive in-game decisions. Nothing changes for him during the game. When the offense is struggling, you might think we would roll out some different looks, or take a few shots downfield, or take some risks on 4^th down. Not with Shaw. 3^rd and 14? Let’s get five yards of field position with a run play. 4^th and 5 from Northwestern’s 37, while trailing 10-3? Eh… punt. 17 yards of field position! What about a long pass attempt? We only threw one long pass all game. (Rector dropped a sure touchdown pass from Hogan.)

I tuned in for a bit of the UCLA-Virginia game. I wanted to root for the Pac-12 in a few games and I also wanted to see UCLA’s true freshman quarterback Josh Rosen. On UCLA’s first offensive play, Jim Mora let Rosen drop back and air out a 50-yard pass downfield. It was a thing of beauty, only to be dropped by an inexperienced receiver. But Rosen got many more opportunities to throw the long ball, and the UCLA offense had a great day. Jim Harbaugh used to let Andrew Luck open the game with a deep bomb. I still remember a beauty to Chris Owusu against Oregon State in 2009. (Strangely enough, Owusu dropped it also.)

Shaw needs to accept the fact that our run game is nothing like it was a few years ago. For that matter, our defense isn’t as good either. Stanford needs to adapt. Our team does not fit into the same molds made from guys like Tyler Gaffney and Shayne Skov. We need to evolve.

After the game, Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News asked Shaw if he was holding plays back for future games. Shaw rattled off some formations Stanford used, then said, “Tell me what you think I should run, and I’ll get it in next week’s game plan.”

Here is a short-list put together in about ten seconds: misdirection plays, wheel routes, stop-and-go routes, lots more deep routes, screens to tight ends, screens to McCaffrey, Hogan roll-outs, a Ryan Burns or Keller Chryst series, a halfback pass, a run on 3^rd and 5 to set up another run on 4^th and short, a surprise onside kick… anything… just something to keep us awake at least.

3. Defense: Another Solid Performance

Northwestern gained 225 yards on the ground, but took 54 attempts to do so. Stanford’s 4.2 yards allowed per rush was actually about average among games played between FBS teams. The real number here is that Stanford allowed only 16 points in a road game. Only 16 points—despite getting no turnovers and dropping two potential interceptions in the end zone. The defense played their hearts out and gave us a chance to win.

4. Offense: Fundamentals Are Important

Don’t drop passes. Don’t throw the ball out-of-bounds. Eat organic brown rice and wash down with Guinness. Fundamentals, people.

5. Up Next: UCF (0-1)

UCF lost to at home to Florida International last week. Time for a good tailgate on Saturday—the main event is not a hot ticket right now.