1. Perspective

That was a fun football game to watch. Casually pleasant, with auspicious beginnings and hints of lingering success. We ran out of tortillas at the tailgate, but there was no shortage of Stanford offense as the Cardinal continued to wax.

Less satisfying is the amount of time I have to write this blog. Ideally, there would be an eighth day of the week that was called Sportsreflectionday. Wedge it in there between Sunday and Monday—even though I could care less what happens on Sunday. I could easily spend 10 hours on Sportsreflectionday at my home office pondering the past, present, and future of the pigskin. Instead, we do what we can. This week I just decided to push back until after Week 6 to be able to reflect on another slate of results. If you were waiting patiently for longer than you wanted, then please send me original material I can cut and paste in next week’s post. I’ll be happy to credit you for your work and send you 100% of the blog’s earnings. Hell, I’ll even tell Monroe to lay out your navy blue suit for the morning… Good God it’s a Lichtenstein!

2. Offense

Usually I poke around the box scores and play-by-play scripts to come up with some unseen stats, but this stat I read on a Lombari article for ESPN: “Hogan has become the only quarterback in the country to average over 11 yards per attempt in four consecutive games.” And this has happened on a bad ankle! Unbelievable play from Hogan: 17 for 19 for 217 yards and 2 TDs. Efficient, veteran play.

Since Hogan was injured for a few weeks, Chryst had been taking the first team snaps in practice. So it was great for him to get some clock in the 4^th quarter to show us his command of the show. He is now 5 for 5 on the season and displays both great poise and accuracy. The Stanford offense is in great hands for the next few years.

It also has to be a satisfying time for Barry Sanders Jr. He has patiently played second or third fiddle for years, but he is finally start to break into the big time with three long touchdown runs in the past two games. I would like to see Sanders in the backfield more often with McCaffrey running routes out of the slot. I see no reason why they can’t both be on the field at the same time. It would give the defense more things to think about.

Finally, the false starts, illegal substitution penalties, and receiver drops that plagued Stanford at the beginning of the year seem to be long gone. Things are really rolling, and the tight ends aren’t even being used that much. Stanford only targeted a tight end on one pass play the entire game. I love the flexibility of the offense, and the fact that UCLA won’t know exactly what to expect.

3. Coaching

In my opinion, Shaw hasn’t made a single bad decision since the first quarter of the UCF game when he punted from UCF’s 33 yard line. He really hasn’t been put in a lot of tough spots. Against Arizona, Stanford only faced a 4^th down play once in the entire game, and it was a 4^th and 15 from its own 36. Shaw is clearly a good coach when it comes to keeping the team focused on itself, and focused on improving. As long as he stays out of tricky situations, it is smooth sailing for Shaw. He has even looked like he is having more fun on the sidelines, cracking big smiles and throwing around more high fives.

4. A Coaching Blunder: Steve Sarkisian

I have no interest discussing Sarkisian’s alcohol and/or painkiller addiction. My only feeling about his and other’s addictive behavior is just a general and mild sadness. But I do feel the need to discuss his decision to kick a field goal on 4^th and 9 from Washington’s 28 yard line while trailing 17-12 with 3:44 remaining in the game and only one time out. It was a shockingly poor strategic decision. Steve Sarkisian’s salary is $4.5 million dollars per year. I think it is safe to say that if about $50,000 of that was for being a good role model and mentor for young adults (at which he has also failed), then the remaining $4,450,000 is mostly for winning football games. One of the most important things you can do at the end of a football game is to make good strategic decisions that optimize your chances of winning. You should never kick a field goal on a late drive when you are trailing by 4-8 points. David Shaw has made this mistake before, and it helped Stanford lose the Rose Bowl at the end of the 2013 season.

The math is pretty simple. Down 5 points, USC needed the following to happen if they:

1. Tried a field goal: made a field goal, recovered onside kick or stopped Washington on three plays, driven down the field, made another field goal.
2. Went for it on 4^th and 9: converted the first down, gained about 15 more yards and scored a touchdown.

Do we see how much shorter the list is for option #2? Yes, we are ignoring many things and not even assigning probabilities to each event, but come on, even football lifers who hate statistics know that a field goal was not the correct play.

The alcoholism is one thing, but if I was an AD with any football knowledge, I would have fired him simply for that field goal attempt.

5. Up Next: UCLA (4-1)

UCLA got hammered by ASU a few weeks ago. They have also lost seven consecutive games to Stanford. They should be mad and motivated. Hopefully a healed Stanford defense can put some pressure on Rosen. Thursday night kickoff on ESPN—good chance for Stanford to take another big step forward.

6. Rankings & The Playoff Picture

I think it is safe to say that Ohio State is not the best team in college football. I do believe in the idea that the undefeated defending champ should be number one, but Ohio State just isn’t as good as…. drumroll please…. Michigan! Holy Harbaughs. We all knew that Harbaugh would be successful at turning the program around, but these results are completely ridiculous. Michigan just became the first FBS team in 20 years to record three consecutive shutouts! And they were all power conference games including one ranked and unbeaten team (Northwestern). Voters and fans ignore margin of victory too much, but more important than a 28-point win like Baylor’s recent 63-35 win over Texas Tech is complete dominance in a football game. Nothing is more dominant than a shutout—assuming your offense is still scoring touchdowns. And Michigan has all three phases, including bonus phase four: a fighting Harbaugh. Michigan is dominant, just like the 2010 Stanford team was, and Michigan is the best team in the country right now. One more comparison: Michigan shutout Maryland at Maryland, and Ohio State let Maryland score 28 points in Columbus. Furthermore, in the seven quarters of football Michigan played before this three game run, they only allowed one touchdown. If I was an AP voter, I would vote Michigan #1—except for the fact that they lost to an undefeated Utah team. So then, Utah is #1, and Michigan is #2. I’m not joking—that is how I would vote. No one else has been dominant. I’d feel a little bit better about my ranking if Utah had beaten Cal more easily. But the only team who has been dominant in all its games is Baylor, and they still haven’t played enough decent teams (Kansas, Lamar, Rice, and SMU are all worse than Michigan’s opponent’s such as Oregon State, BYU, and Maryland). However, the AP voters are still scared of the little number: one. Yep, Michigan has one loss, so all of the voters are afraid to rank them too high with so many undefeated teams. The highest Michigan was ranked by any voter was #4.

Yardage statistics should also be weighed heavily with victories, as many teams squeak by with fortunate wins. In other words, a few turnovers and 3^rd down conversions can have a radical impact on a game. Consider undefeated Temple (5-0). Temple beat a good Cincinnati team 34-26 despite being outgained 557 to 296! Cincinnati had 34 first downs compared to Temple’s 13. Cincinnati is a much better team than Temple, but it committed 5 turnovers in the game and lost. Fortunately, Temple is still not ranked right now. It is 5-0, but it hasn’t looked that good.

How you win should matter, just like who you play should matter. And that is exactly why it is so difficult to come up with a dominant team or a clear #1 at this point in the year. Not a single one of the 16 currently undefeated teams have outgained its opponent by more than 50 yards in all of its games. Teams are winning, but no team has been dominant in every game.

It isn’t always that way. In 2011, for example, Stanford was 5-0 at this point in the year, and had outgained all five opponents by at least 99 yards. Alabama was also 5-0 in 2011, and it had outgained all its opponents by well over 100 yards. I didn’t even bother checking other teams that year. I’m sure there were a few more examples of teams that had dominated all of its games. This year there simply are not any such teams. Even Utah, which has looked as good as any other team and owns some big victories, was outgained against Utah State by 46 yards. Utah State committed 3 turnovers compared to zero by Utah. There you go—game, set, match: Utah.

There is only one team that is in the top-20 of both offensive yards-per-pay and defensive yards-allowed-per-play: Ohio State. Damn. I was hoping it was either no one or Stanford. OK, well, then I revise my rankings. #1 Ohio State. #2 Utah. #3 Michigan. #4 Baylor. These are NOT my playoff picks in any way, shape, or form. Just my ranking of the top four teams. It is good that the Playoff Committee waits as long as it does to make its first ranking—there is simply no good way to pick a final four at this point in the season. Week 7 should help clarify some things though—including Stanford vs UCLA, 10 of the top-25 teams are in action against each other. Should be a great weekend. I’m glad Stanford plays Thursday night so I can watch other games all day on Saturday.