1. A New Era of Stanford Football

This last game will stand as a bookmark as the end of a golden era in Stanford football. The losses to Michigan State last year and USC and Notre Dame this year can be considered from different views, some of which point to Stanford still being an elite football team. What happened on Saturday against Arizona State cannot be spun. ASU does not have a dominant defense. UCLA scored 62 points on them. Both Weber State and New Mexico gained over 300 yards. The Stanford offense was inept. And its best player, Ty Montgomery, is dropping passes and fumbling punts that he should not be trying to catch. Things are not working for Stanford, and the difficulties can no longer be seen as outliers.

The eye-test tells us we aren’t watching the same kind of Stanford team we’ve seen in recent years, but the statistics tell the clear, sky-blue story:

• Stanford hadn’t lost a game by more than one touchdown since 2011 against Oregon—39 games ago.

• Stanford hadn’t lost three games in a regular season since 2009 against Arizona—67 games ago.

• Stanford hadn’t been down 14-0 since 2009 against Oregon State—68 games ago.

• Stanford hadn’t been shut out at halftime since 2007 against Washington State—88 games ago.

• Stanford hadn’t scored 10 points or less and gained under 300 yards since 2007 against Washington—89 games ago.

If the Stanford offense puts up 30+ points from here on out, we will reconsider the narrative. But the chance of that happening is the limit of f(x) = 1 / x   as x approaches infinity. The era that saw Andrew Luck lead rampaging offenses and Hogan stretch out to 10-0 as a starter vs top-25 teams is over. Done. Over. Sayonara.

2. Remembering The Golden Era

Stanford might have set one of the most amazing football records of all-time. From the end of the 2010 season to midway through the 2011 season, Stanford won ten consecutive football games by 25 points or more. I can’t figure out if this is a record for FBS major conference football, but it might be. The 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers are commonly thought of as one of the most dominant teams ever, going 12-0 with a 38.7 pt margin of victory. From 1994-1996 Nebraska never had a streak of 10 consecutive 25 pt wins. The 1972 USC team cruised to 12-0 but only beat Stanford by 9 that year. It is possible that Stanford owns this amazing record.

It was a golden era of Stanford football. Unfortunately, because of the Oregon Ducks, it won’t be nationally remembered. Stanford was good enough to compete for a national title in 2010 and 2011, but Oregon erased the chance. Stanford returned the “favor” in 2012, taking away a great chance at the national title from Oregon in a shocking upset. In the end, Stanford never got a shot. The Playoff came a few years too late for Stanford. We never got to see it match up against the best of the SEC.

Still, it was an amazing resurrection and a once-in-a-lifetime run of glory that we can always cherish. How far gone are those times? In the 38 games since the 2011 Oregon game, which ended the streak of 10 consecutive 25+ point wins, Stanford has never even had two consecutive 25 pt wins.

3. The Reason For Stanford’s Struggles: Blocking

This blog has criticized Shaw and the offensive coaching staff for many strategic mistakes with in-game management, but it is now clear that Stanford has some personnel and execution problems. We can’t run the ball. More specifically, we aren’t blocking like we used to. This year, the holes aren’t there. It doesn’t take a special running back to run through a hole. Stanford has been blessed with some amazing running backs, but they aren’t irreplaceable guys. Toby Gerhart was inches away from the Heisman Trophy in 2009, but through 70 NFL games, he has had only one 100-yard game. Through 22 games with the Arizona Cardinals, Stepfan Taylor has never rushed for more than 40 yards in a game. Tyler Gaffney has yet to take a handoff in the NFL. These guys were beasts, and definitely broke tackles for extra yardage more than Wright and Sanders have done. But they weren’t being swarmed at the line of scrimmage nearly as much.

What is more important to a run: one running back or the seven or eight players in charge of creating a gap? The answer is obvious. Stanford is inexperienced at all of the blocking positions: the line, the tight-ends, and fullback. Everyone except Andrus Peat is new, and they are clearly struggling to overpower quality foe. Even beyond the departures of the great offensive linemen like Martin, DeCastro, Fleming, and Yankey, we are missing the blocking of tight ends like Zach Ertz and fullbacks like Owen Marecic and Ryan Hewitt. Unfortunately, blocking power doesn’t appear overnight. It might be a year or two—or more—before Stanford becomes a dominant running team again

4. A Smaller Reason For Stanford’s Struggles: Hogan

Hogan has not improved his accuracy. He has also not increased his ability to find 2^nd or 3^rd targets. He too often locks in on Montgomery and throws it his way whether or not he is covered. Arizona State decided that Stanford would have to ride Hogan’s arm to victory. Arizona State either loaded the box to stop the run or blitzed when Hogan dropped back. Hogan had an opportunity to exploit some one-on-one matchups. He often missed his target—especially on some downfield throws on Stanford’s last drive.

5. Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw Are Both 4-3 This Season

Is there any reason to lament the departure of former Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh? Well, Harbaugh’s 49ers are showing some similar problems. I don’t watch NFL football, but my dad drew some parallel lines after the games this weekend. The 49ers offensive line has been dealing with injuries and only two of the five linemen from the 2012 Super Bowl team have consistently played this year. The Harbaugh-Shaw style of football is only as good as its blocking, especially when neither Stanford nor the 49ers has a pure pocket passer.

6. The Silver Lining: Stanford Is Still A Good Team

ASU did not dominate Stanford. They were better, but not in any sort of distinct way. They had a better quarterback, and probably the best player on the field, wide receiver Jaelen Strong. But not much more than that. Ty Montgomery and Christian McCaffrey gave ASU 10 points off of fumbles. It should have been a close game, especially considering we were driving for another score late. Furthermore, ASU had an extra week to prepare. It didn’t affect its offense, but its defense had clearly watched film on Stanford and come up with a game plan. Although Stanford is not what we want them to be, they are still very competitive against good teams and usually beat bad teams.

The loss to USC was a fluke. Stanford was the better team that day. And Stanford battled Notre Dame, which looks like a legitimately good team. Now, if we lose to Oregon State, I’ll stop cherry picking stats and revising history and there will be no excuses for Stanford. But for now, we are still an above-average team. Not completely fun to watch, especially given the soaring expectations spun from the spirals of Andrew Luck—but still a team you wouldn’t trade for a randomly-selected team from any of the major conferences. To put it more specifically, I wouldn’t trade our current team for Florida, or Tennessee, or Texas A&M, or South Carolina, or Texas, or Michigan, or Nebraska, or Oklahoma, or Wisconsin, or Miami, or Penn State… Not so bad, right?

7. Up Next: Oregon State (4-2)

Despite its recent struggles, Stanford has still managed to avoid back-to-back losses for the past 67 games—thus making this Oregon State game that much more important. If Stanford loses, it might not finish with a winning record. If Stanford wins, the Oregon game still has a lot riding on it.

Big game. Huge game. Damn… I’m actually getting excited for it now… didn’t think that was going to happen so quickly after the trauma of this last one. At least the morning tailgate is guaranteed to be an unstoppable, offensive force.

8. The Pac-12 and the Playoff Picture

There was one football game I thoroughly enjoyed watching last Saturday evening: Florida St vs Notre Dame. Even though Notre Dame lost, it held its own. ASU and USC have a shot later this season in two games that will be important for the perception of the conference.

For the first time this season, there is a full slate of six Pac-12 games coming up this weekend. We’ll discuss the Pac-12 Playoff and bowl implications further next week. We’ll also have an updated look at ranking the top-25, just in time for the Playoff Committee’s first rankings release.